Nov 01

Hot Stove League Talk

The Dodgers bought out Chad Billingsley’s contract for $3M, making him a free agent.

The 30-year-old Billingsley, a former All-Star, is trying to return from two arm operations. He didn’t pitch in 2014 and made only two starts in 2013 before needing Tommy John surgery. While rehabbing this year, he required surgery to repair a partially torn flexor tendon.

A first-round pick in the 2003 First-Year Player Draft, Billingsley went 81-61 with a 3.65 ERA for the Dodgers. He won a career-high 16 games in 2008 and was an All-Star in ’09.

Billingsley becomes the seventh Dodger free agent. In addition to him, Hanley Ramirez, Paul Maholm, Chris Perez, Roberto Hernandez, Kevin Correia and Jamey Wright are also free to negotiate for new deals with any team.

Ramirez’s contract is possibly the biggest decision new boss Andrew Friedman will have to make. Do the Dodgers make him a $15.3M qualifying offer, which ensures they get something in return (a supplemental draft pick between the first and second rounds) if he rejects it and goes elsewhere? He might be worth more than that, especially if he’s willing to move to third base for a new team. The Dodgers have Uribe signed through 2015, so that’s not an option they could easily fulfill. My guess is they make the qualifying offer just to guarantee themselves a player in return when he signs with the Yankees to replace Derek Jeter.

Dan Haren picked up his $10M option to stay with the Dodgers, and Brian Wilson is expected to pick up his for the same amount. Maholm is recovering from knee surgery, Perez was lightly used down the stretch, Hernandez was mostly adequate, Correia wasn’t much help, and Jamey Wright is 40 years old with who knows how much left in his arm.

The team still has more outfielders than it knows what to do with, and it’s also got Joc Pederson pounding on the door to get in, although his cup of coffee at the end of September wasn’t very successful. Ethier and Crawford could be trade bait, but both have very large contracts. Ethier is signed through 2017 with an option for 2018; the balance of the contract is $53.5M through 2017. Crawford is still under terms of the contract he signed with the Red Sox, which has a balance of $62.5M through 2017.

It should be an interesting off-season.

Oct 07

Who might go?

In end-of-the-season news, Josh Beckett announced his retirement after the game. He did better for the team than most of us anticipated he would, I think: 6-6 with a 2.88 ERA and a no-hitter before going down for the year with a torn labrum in his hip.

The Dodgers have a passel of free agents led by Hanley Ramirez. The team has until five days after the World Series to extend what’s called a Qualifying Offer of $15.3M (a number set by the Basic Agreement as the average of the 125 highest contracts by average annual value). That ensures that the Dodgers would get a compensating draft pick if Ramirez rejects the offer and goes elsewhere. On the other hand, he could accept it. If so, he and the Dodgers would be committed to one another for next year.

Other free agents: Chad Billingsley (team option of $14M or a $3M buyout — after two surgeries the Dodgers may elect to buy him out); Paul Maholm, Roberto Hernandez, Kevin Correia and Jamey Wright. Dan Haren has earned a $10M player option but even after Tuesday’s game said he remained undecided whether to play or retire. Brian Wilson has a $10M option he’s expected to accept.

Sep 05

How many innings can one arm throw?

According to Dodgers.com Beckett is thinking about retirement.

Beckett needs surgery to repair a torn labrum and a lesion in his left hip, whether he pitches again or not.

[snip]

He’s a high-mileage 34-year-old, having thrown 2,051 innings in 13 big league seasons.

I don’t doubt Beckett might decline a four-month rehab, as the article suggests is needed. He hurts, he’s made more than $116M in his career and has a couple of small kids, so why not retire? Other than the no-hitter this year I suspect he hasn’t had much fun this season. He even says “It takes four hours of [therapy] work to do two hours on the field.”

I think baseball may have seen the last of Josh Beckett as a player. But that bit about his innings pitched raised a question for me — is 2,051 IP high-mileage? Over 13 years he’s averaged 209 IP over a 162-game period. He was a full-time starter when he was 22 years old. Among Dodger starters:

  • Dan Haren is 33 and has thrown 2,202 innings in 12 MLB seasons for a 162-game average of 215 IP.
  • Kevin Correia is 34 but has thrown only 1,397 MLB innings for a 162-game average of 168 IP in 12 seasons.
  • Roberto Hernandez is 34 with 1,248 MLB innings for a 162-game average of 190 IP over 9 seasons.
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu is 27, has 7 years of Korean League experience and 1,269 innings there in addition to the 336 he’s got in the big leagues, averaging roughly 178 IP (the Korean Leagues throw off the 162-game calculation).
  • Chad Billingsley is 30 and has 1,175 MLB innings for a 162-game average of 195 IP over 7 seasons (and 12 innings).
  • Kershaw, believe it or not, is 27 but has 1,349 MLB innings himself and has averaged 223 IP over a 162-game period in 7 seasons.

Of the three guys who are the same age as Beckett, Haren’s the closest in hard use. He’s always been a starter. Correia pitched his first five years in relief and as a spot starter. Hernandez was a full-time starter in his second year in the bigs.

If Beckett is high-mileage, then Haren, averaging 215 IP, and Kershaw, averaging 223 IP, are the two guys who could also be classified as such. We can only hope Kershaw doesn’t injure himself throwing that many innings every year.

Aug 24

Game 132, 2014

132 was my company number in boot camp way back in 1972 at the now-closed Recruit Training Center in San Diego.

Mets at Dodgers, 1:10PM PT, TV: SPNLA

Bartolo Colon will start for the Mets, but the big news is that according to Fox Sports he’s been placed on revocable waivers (see here for a discussion of what that means), so tomorrow’s start might be his last wearing the Orange and Blue. He’s 11-10 with a 3.85 ERA on the season.

The Dodgers send Kevin Correia out to make his third start as a Dodger. He’s 2-0 with a 4.09 ERA in the NL after coming over from the Twins and 7-13 with a 4.87 ERA overall.

In news from the farm, multiple news sources are reporting that the Dodgers will move their AAA affiliation from Albuquerque to Oklahoma City next season. A Dodger-affiliated buyers group is finalizing a deal with the current owner of the OKC Redhawks, which announced it was selling its five minor league properties earlier this year.

Oklahoma City’s elevation is 1,201 feet, while Albuquerque’s is 5,312 feet. The reasoning seems to be that trying to judge players’ skills when they play their home games at the same elevation as Denver is difficult and can lead to disappointment.

In other AAA news,

With a stolen base Saturday night, Dodgers No. 3 prospect Joc Pederson did what no other player has done in the Pacific Coast League since 1934.

Already leading the league with 32 home runs, Pederson swiped his 30th base of the season to become the first 30-homer, 30-steal player in the PCL since Angels Minor Leaguer Frank Demaree did it 80 years ago.

Lineup when available.

Aug 19

Game 127, 2014

Padres at Dodgers, 7:10PM PT, TV: SPNLA, FSSD

Kevin Correia gets the start for the Dodgers. He’s faced the Padres twice already this season, even though he pitched for the Twins of the AL before his acquisition. In May he went six innings against them, striking out six, walking one, and giving up three earned runs. In August he also went six innings, struck out three, walked one, and again gave up three earned runs. In his first start for the Dodgers last Monday he threw six innings of one-run ball with just four hits and one walk allowed with five strikeouts and beat the Braves. Correia is 6-13 on the season with a 4.79 ERA. He had a horrible April, ending the month with a 7.33 ERA. It’s been dropping every month thereafter.

Ian Kennedy will go for the Padres. He’s 9-10 with a 3.54 ERA. This will be his fourth start since missing a turn due to a minor oblique injury; the previous three he went five, six and six innings and gave up no more than three earned runs in any of those games.

Hanley Ramirez is expected to come off the DL on Sunday, the moment the 15 day period is up. We get to see Erisbel Arruebarrena at short tonight. He’s been in eight previous games at the big league level, getting five hits in sixteen ABs and playing error-free ball.

Aug 11

Game 120, 2014

Dodgers at Braves, 4:10PM PT, TV: SPNLA, ESPN

Newly-acquired Kevin Correia is thrown directly into the fire, making his first start for the Dodgers the very day he’s activated. Pedro Baez was optioned to Albuquerque to make room for him. Correia’s last start was a six-inning, three-run outing against the Padres on August 6. He’ll face Julio Teheran, who is 10-8 with a 2.92 ERA on the season. He had a good game against the Dodgers on July 31, but Kershaw outpitched him (or gave up fewer runs, anyway).

Lineup:

Aug 10

Game 119, 2014

Dodgers at Brewers, 11:10PM PT, TV: SPNLA, TBS

Clayton Kershaw v. Jimmy Nelson. It looks like a mismatch, but “that’s why they play the games.” The veteran Kershaw is 13-2 with a 1.82 ERA, while the rookie Nelson is 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA. The kid has had three straight quality starts, though.

In personnel news, Hanley Ramirez is probably headed for the DL with an oblique injury. The Dodgers acquired RHP Kevin Correia from the Twins for a player to be named later or cash. Correia is 5-13 with a 4.94 ERA this season for the Twins, who are in last place in the AL Central. He was once an All-Star who went to the game in 2011 while with the Pirates. He’s 74-91 with a 4.53 ERA in his twelve-year career.

As expected, the Dodgers placed SS Hanley Ramirez on 15-day disabled list with a right oblique strain and recalled INF Darwin Barney from Albuquerque.

Lineup when available.