Open Thread #4, Winter 2015

Now that the Red Sox have gone berserk with their money and given 30-year-old David Price a contract worth $217 million over the next seven years, how much will the Dodgers have to bid to retain Zack Greinke’s services? He might get the same annual compensation as Price but for a shorter time period, since Zack is 2 years older.

176 thoughts on “Open Thread #4, Winter 2015

      • I too am dubious, $192MM…I don’t see the Dodgers doing it, but I hope I am wrong.

        • Always thought it would be in the $30 million range, but that’s a lot of years. Not that it is really any consolation, but an older Zach probably outperforms an older Price.

          • Given continued good health, a pitcher with Greinke’s smarts could continue to be effective even beyond his physical prime.

  1. Could this be the Dodgers new 2B option?
    Second Baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez Leaves Cuba, Seeks MLB Deal

    • Hasn’t played in over a year. Not likely to get through the paperwork to be signed in at least six months. Below average fielder, below average speed, below average power, average contact. Everything that comes out of Cuba is not great. He will be signed by someone, maybe we hear of him again in 3 or 4 years, maybe not…

        • Ha – you are right Package. Certainly doesn’t sound like the type of player the article described. And if Audit is even half correct then it doesn’t sound like the type of 2B I want the Dodgers to go after.

          • Hey Dave, hope you are doing well. This is going to be enlightening off season I think.

          • Thanks Package. I think you are right about this off season. I usually enjoy this time of year – dreaming of roster construction without the pesky reality of playing actual games getting in the way. However, I’ve been so busy in my life away from this site that I’ve hardly had time to be connected and involved! Anyway, life is good so that’s the main.

  2. FWIW:

    “Although Greinke seemed to enjoy his time with the Dodgers, it was known that he was annoyed with the club’s tolerance of Yasiel Puig’s antics. And when asked his opinion of the club’s Trade Deadline deals, he had no comment.”

    http://m.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article/158687540/zack-greinke-may-choose-dodgers-or-giants

    Also, in a bid to get Zack back, on social media Larry King has offered him free babysitting.

    I’m trying to decide if King’s offer is more inducement to sign with the Dodgers…or Gnats.

    • Sounds like a plan. Another good starter sounds like something that they might do at the deadline if Ryu doesn’t pan out. I can see them at least initially going with what they had last year with Anderson, Wood, Ballslinger and Frias taking up the 3-6 slots.

      • If I’m Hernandez I’m thinking about asking for a chance to play one position regularly somewhere, with the Dodgers or not. You make a lot more money and play a lot more as a regular than you do as a utility guy, and I wouldn’t want to be pegged solely as a utility player at my age.

          • Me as Hernandez? Sure! I’d rather play than watch.

            Me as me? Partly true. I tend to have a book on my lap while watching if the game is on at other than dinner time when I’m cooking while watching.

        • For a pitcher that nobody wants. The Dodgers don’t want those two, they could easily bring up or sign a better player than Crawford for a whole lot less money. The Padres don’t want Shields and nobody else will pay what he’s owed. The Padres do want a shortstop. The money pretty much cancels out. Both teams could get a player they could use and lose a player they don’t want.

          • Just don’t think that would ever fly. The Dodgers would gladly trade those two for Shields, a guy who pitched over 200 innings last year and had over 200 Ks for a minor league SS who can’t hit and a washed up outfielder who played only 65 games, Shields is owed 63 million over the next 3 years and another 16 mil club option while Crawford is owed 42 million. I would love to have Shields but it will cost more than that.

          • So, you expect the Pads to bite for a combination of players with no value or very little? No rebuilding team wants Crawford.

          • Shields has some real red flags, including sharp spike in long balls despite pitching at The Litter Box, which notoriously depresses home runs.

    • Ok, I’m panicking… The Dodgers really need to sign two big pitchers this off-season. And they better improve the team or watch Clayton opt out and leave when the opportunity arises.

      • Well, there you go. Don’t count on anything too good. Friedman still thinks he is with Tampa Bay. Nobody here should be critical of the FO. Everyone just loves them except me.

    • Right now it doesn’t look good. I am shocked they didn’t sign either Greinke or Price. As it stands, I give you props package for your take on the FO not doing major signings.
      However, I reserve the right to wait and see what the roster looks like at the beginning of the season before completely throwing them under the proverbial bus.
      Or what they look like next week after the winter meetings.

      • Dave, this is the best 1, 2 that the Dodgers have had since Koufax and Drysdale and the FO let Greinke walk for a draft pick. Do you really think they care about the fans? This is terrrible! Thanks for the courtesy.

  3. OK, Puig to Miami for Fernandez, sign Heyward, sign or trade for a $15M to $20M pitcher, we’re probably a better team overall…

    • Miami? as in Mattingly’s Miami? $15 to $20MM for a pitcher? Aside from those two things, I like your ideas…not sure the FO would though.

    • Give me a break, this FO is not smart enough to make a decent trade. We are not a better team!!!!

        • If you think that being smart is letting a #1 go who easily could have been a Cy Young award winner last year and has been a Cy Young award winner, you are badly mistaken. Their point of view is certainly different than mine but it not very smart.

          • Are you going to make $200M in the next six years? Or even FO’s more pedestrian $35M? We had Zack last season, Kersh too, and we didn’t get to the series. Trying some other way may be justified.

  4. I gotta believe the FO was just as stunned by this as we are. They thought they were competing with the Giants, and suddenly here come the D-Backs with a couple of hundred million bucks, about $30M more than the Dodgers wanted to spend for that sixth year.

    • Don’t you believe they didn’t know it. I believe they never wanted to sign Greinke unless he gave them some kind of discount. They do not want impact FA players and they don’t want to spend money. You see the payroll skrinking, don’t you?? Again the FO leads the fan base on and then doesn’t deliver.

  5. Shaikin:

    the Dodgers offered close to $160 million over five years, a contract
    that would have carried the highest average annual value in baseball
    history and carried Greinke through age 36. They refused to guarantee a
    sixth year, as the Diamondbacks did.The Dodgers ultimately were outbid by about $50 million

    • Great for Zach, but would have been crazy for the Dodgers to pay him as if he would replicate his 2015 season over the next six years. Back to the drawing board. Cueto has more leverage now.

  6. Ya know what? The Royals failed to hang on to Zanky, won the Series this year, and should have won the year before. Zanky also failed to get the Cerveceros and the Angles to the Series.

  7. I’m disappointed we didn’t sign Zack but I’m not a bridge-jumper. WBBsAs’s assessment below of all the teams who owned Zack and didn’t get to the World Series stops short of blaming him and well it should. I’m sure he did his utmost on all occasions but the proper conclusion is that it takes a well-constructed team and some good luck to get there. Zack can/could help but he’s not the complete answer. I think his loss is a wake-up call to FO that he needs to address all the problems on the Dodgers, not just pitching. Our biggest problem last season was scoring runs. There have been no rumors about fixes on that problem but I’m sure it will be addressed very soon. Interesting times.

  8. In my opinion….the Dodgers were never serious players for Zack. They said all the right things, they will continue to do so. But they never had any intention of paying the price for him. I am sure they put in a bid, but I am guessing the bid was just low enough that they knew he would never accept it, that there would be someone higher.

    • I would guess that they were willing to pay him above what he might have been worth to the team, but hard to compete with another team looking for a splash and an ace.

      • Money should not be an issue for us, but apparently, it is. When you are talking billions, what’s another couple of millions.

        • Money has to be combined with baseball sense. Otherwise we would be paying $126 million over the next three years for Hanley and Kemp.

          • Zach is great, but do you really want to be paying him $34 million a year through 2021 for his 2015 season?

          • With the luxury tax, hardly monopoly money. With that, spending in 2015 was close to $350 million.

          • What you want is for everyone to be patient and hopefully the team will stumble on a Championship. I am sorry but this team is worse than the 2014 team even without the loss of Grenike. What good is combining money with baseball sense when the team never wins. The FO needs to own what they are. CHEAP and not willing to get GOOD players. The team is being torn apart for the sake of betting on the come for prospects and retreads.

          • The Yankees have consistently been the highest spending ball club over the past 15 years and have stumbled into one championship over that period.

          • Bob, it the current Dodger roster going into opening day was exactly what it is right now and the team played the whole season and won the WS, you would give complete credit to this FO even though they stumbled into a win. Double standard.

          • Package, if FO is responsible for last year’s “failure”, why wouldn’t he also be responsible for next year’s “win”? Package, you need a good lawyer to advise you before you make a statement. You’re your own worst enemy, WBBsAs a distant second.

          • Audit, if you would read the whole exchange you would see that Bob said the Yankees stumbled into a W.S. win and I was simply saying that if this FO won the W.S. with any type of team they would give them credit whereas he would not give the Yankees credit. Please know what you are saying before you bloody my nose!

          • I give them full credit for winning one WS over 15 years, while being by far the biggest spending team. Happy now?

    • You probably will continue to be the only one whose every comment (almost) is to whine and complain about the FO.

      A true one-trick pony.

        • Reputable baseball sources say the Dodger offer would have made Greinke’s contract the highest AAV one in the game, let alone the Dbags offer.

          And the Dodgers did offer it. Greinke took a higher offer elsewhere.
          As Dodger fans we’d take whatever the Dodgers offered and that’d be the end of it, happily ever after, etc. But that’s not the real world.
          We can’t force players to play for the Dodgers.

          Unless you have some actual information that contradicts these baseball sources, you’re just left with one thing: your opinion, which is worth just so much.

          • Money is why players play baseball. Any Dodger fan who cannot see how much losing Zack hurt this team, I cannot help. Your continued loyalty to the FO is commendable as it is greater than the team’s success. You do not pay Zack’s contract. Why would you care how much it cost? It would not have hurt the Dodgers to pay one more year as the Dbacks did.

          • One of the things you usually say to those who don’t agree with 100% of your FO-bashing is that we think the FO can do no wrong. That’s not so.

            But the FO deserves more time before being evaluated so harshly. They will be judged continually by ownership, and that’s who will make the call on their performance that matters.

            Like all executives, they will make good calls and bad ones. If the good doesn’t considerably outweigh the bad over time, they’re gone.

            You wanted the team to back up the Brinks truck to Greinke’s door and tell him to unload until he was satisfied. If he were 10 years younger and had no elbow concerns, the Dodgers would have. That extra year or more would have been a great thing, not a stumbling block.

          • You seem to define “continues to lose” as not winning a WS.

            Three straight division titles–a first for the Dodgers–and 90+ wins each year– is a funny definition for “continues to lose”– and an illogical one.

          • All fans would be better served if they understood that getting to the playoffs every year is a big deal, and that from there on each year it’s a crapshoot. The hottest luckiest team often wins through to the World Series and beyond, not necessarily the best.

          • It could have, if he was no longer effective in year five and they still had a year to go paying him $30m that they couldn’t spend on several other pitchers.

          • Dammit, Package, I’m losing patience. Get your head out of your and talk sense. Nobody here likes this outcome. But the rest of us are close enough to reality to understand that we had nothing to do with it. What “loyalty”? The owners hired FO to run the club, we have no say at all in his decisions. The best thing, actually the only thing, we can do is wish him well, for all our benefits. Crying and whining doesn’t change a thing.

          • You are correct we do not have any say in how the FO runs the ballclub but we have our opinions and that is all we have. It is our choice to air our opinions or not. No one said it would help but why does anyone write anything if you cannot express opinions?? By the way, I do wish Zack well, it isn’t his fault that the Dodger FO chose not to keep him.

          • I suggest it was more that he got bought away from them for an extra year of contract. It looks to me as though they made a big effort, unless you think $155M over five years is chump change. The D-Backs were willing to risk paying him for that sixth year; the Dodgers were not.

          • If Greinke wanted to stay, all he had to do was accept the Dodger offer.

            He chose to leave, which he has every right to. The FO didn’t choose to leave him.

          • He is not going to accept millions less just to be a Dodger. He does have to think of his family. The FO never really wanted to retain Zack in my opinion. The FO is just playing games with the fan base. I expressed than sometime ago and it came to pass.

          • According to baseball-reference he’s made $110.3M so far in his career. Accepting another $155M in the next five years would not have put him in penury. He wanted that extra $50M for another year. Either way it’s not like his family was hurting.

            Argue from logic, will you?

          • OK, 50 million dollars is more than most if not all players would pass on just to stay with a given team. That is Logic! That includes you and me.
            I swear, you guys will say anything to back this FO.

          • Think of his family, my a–. He’s only made, what, $48M in the last two years, not to mention what he made before coming to the Dodgers. It is purely ego driven.

          • OK, you think he should have accepted the Dodgers offer just to remain a Dodger. If you think you would have accepted the offer to remain a Dodger you are as dumb as dirt. 50 milllion bucks is a lot of money and nobody with good sense would turn down that offer. Call it ego if you must but that is ridiculous. You would not have done it either.

          • For better or worse, Greinke is a mercenary who took the most money. I doubt the extra year will make much difference to his family, which would do very well even if he retired immediately.

  9. From the ESPN post foul tip posted directly below:

    They reportedly offered him a five-year contract that would have paid
    him $155 million. That’s a 21-percent raise off his previous salary and
    would have been paying him at least $31 million at the age of 37. Only two major-league pitchers who were 37 or older, John Lackey and R.A. Dickey, pitched at least 200 innings and had an ERA under 4.00 last season.</blockquote.

    • Just as I said, just a little short on price, and a year short on length…the FO can tell us it was in the hunt, it was out of their hands. Never really seriously went out to get him

  10. OK, according to Audit, Foul Tip, Bob Hendley and Link I am a dumb ass because I do not accept the fact that the FO could not sign Grenike. You guys continually give the FO the benefit of the doubt or just say that I should give it up because there is nothing that can be done to stop the FO from doing dumb stuff. Well guess what, I will never kiss up to that dumb FO who is tearing up my team, yes my team. You guys continually give a pass to those dumb asses because you are stubborn and bullheaded. To give in would be stupid. You can do that but I never will. Stick you heads in the sand and make excuses but I never will.

    • package, you’ve got it backwards. We’re realists. We recognize that the front office has its own priorities and limitations, whereas you seem to think they should turn into Steinbrenner West (which the payroll numbers indicate they’ve come close to, albeit not with free agents). It’s evident they don’t want to do that.

      Any professional manager has fiduciary obligations to the owners, whether they’re shareholders if it’s a public corporation or private ones if it’s not. They are exercising their judgment in how they spend ownership’s money. They felt they made Zack a good offer. If you asked him, he might say the same. He’d then say the D-Backs made him a better one and he took it.

    • You take an absolute position and assume that we do the same and frame everything in terms of loyalty to the FO. I just feel that there are better ways to sustain a competitive team than to pay someone $200 million over the next six years essentially for what they did in 2015.

    • They break the pitchers down into several lists. The ones available in trade are in two lists; Pitchers who would cost Puig, and pitchers who won’t cost Puig. I’m reading Molly Knight’s book, The Best Team Money Can Buy. It has convinced me Puig is more trouble than he’s worth; as his skill increases so will his bad attitude… So I say, if we can trade him for a good pitcher, Full Steam Ahead!

  11. Call it sour grapes if you like, but in years to come I see both Zack and the Snakes regretting that deal. I am always sceptical of pitchers, they can go from good to bad at the drop of a hat. I keep my fingers crossed for our own but there’s always a small sigh of relief when they move on. Pessimism is a great philosophy to live by….

  12. If Zack had re-signed with the Dodgers, no matter how much money he was paid, he would still have been our second best pitcher. Clayton is first in our hearts, money has nothing to do with it. I wonder if he chose to move on not so much for the money as for the position, being the team’s best pitcher.

  13. ESPN’s Mark Saxon thinks the Chapman signing, if it happens, might be for the season, not just to flip him. He also reports they’ve signed 34-year-old starting pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma, who’s been good when healthy.

    Saxon prognosticates some more in that column and the ones directly below, so scroll down.

      • Dodger Digest thinks 3 years, $42M but cautions deal apparently not yet completed. Oh, and that costs a First Round Draft Pick, too.

        • Hope Zach Lee is included. All signs point to his never playing much of a role for the Dodgers. Take more than him, obviously.

        • From Dodger Digest: The entire deal is not yet known, but it’d make sense for the Reds to be interested in a guy closer to the majors if Holmes is the centerpiece. I’m talking about guys like Peraza, Austin Barnes, Jharel Cotton, Scott Schebler and Zach Lee. Any combination of Holmes and one of the guys named in the previous sentence would seem like a fair trade (except maybe Lee). Chris Anderson might also fit, but he struggled in Double-A last season. That’s my own speculation. It’s also the fact I don’t want to see a guy like Cody Bellinger or Alex Verdugo sent as part of the deal.

  14. And it’s not yet noon of the opening day of the meetings!!!! We could have the roster turned over by Wednesday…

  15. Some how, some way, FO is going to move an outfielder and sign Cespedes. Take it to the bank.

  16. So – still need (want) a #2 starting pitcher, an outfielder, and possible a platooning second baseman if Peraza is traded. Then we should be looking fairly solid.

  17. Dodger Digest alludes to the possibility that Jensen may have some issues with sharing time with Chapman. I agree, I’ve said here before that I think Jensen is a head case. My hope is that the Dodgers move Jensen, now or in July, and keep Chapman. I guess smart money is try to work out extensions with both players and keep the best deal.

  18. My guess is Dodgers signing Utley took them completely out of Zobrist or any other infielder. But, it is FO….