Oct 03

Playoff scenarios

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Before the Dodgers’ game even starts this evening the American League playoffs may be a lot clearer than they are now. Here’s a sample for just one of many teams still in the hunt:

Baltimore Orioles (93-68, second in AL East by one game)

* Have already clinched no worse than a wild-card berth

* Can not clinch AL East today. Can be eliminated from AL East race with a loss to Rays or a Yankees win vs. Boston

* Can force AL East tiebreaker on Thursday in Baltimore with a win vs. Rays and a Yankees loss vs. Boston

* If lose to Rays today, will play at the loser of today’s Rangers-A’s game in wild-card playoff

* If beat Rays today and Yankees beat Red Sox, will play in wild-card game in Baltimore on Friday against loser of A’s vs. Rangers Game 162

* If beat Rays today, Yankees lose to Red Sox, and Orioles win AL East tiebreaker, Baltimore will be the No. 2 seed in the AL

The National League situation is much more straightforward: all the players are known, it’s just the seeding that could vary with today’s results. Like this, for example: If the Nats lose and the Reds win today, the Nats go to AT&T Park. Otherwise the Reds fly to San Francisco.

If you’re a baseball fan as much as you’re a Dodgers fan, this will be an exciting day.

Oct 02

Alas!

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The Dodgers’ six-game winning streak ended tonight at the worst possible time, after the Reds had defeated the Cardinals earlier to keep the Dodgers’ faint playoff hopes alive. With the loss the Cardinals win Wild Card #2 and the right to play the Braves in a one-game playoff Friday to determine who goes on to play the Nationals starting on Sunday, October 7.

This game might serve as a microcosm of the Dodgers’ season: down early to a couple of solo home runs from the Giants, they scratched back for one run, gave up two more, grimly fought back to within a run, and fell short at the end. There was a costly baserunning error by Mark Ellis, usually one of the steadiest players on the team; there was a short outing from the starter Chris Capuano; there were some hits from the new guys (Victorino, Gonzalez and Ramirez) and from the old (AJ Ellis and Ethier); and there was excellent relief pitching again from Belisario, Jansen and League.

Tomorrow’s game is for pride only (and Kershaw’s attempt to retake the NL strikeout lead from R.A. Dickey — he needs nine to tie and ten to go ahead), but pride might be enough. It’s the Giants, after all.

Oct 02

Sword of Damocles hangs over Dodger Stadium

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Reds – Cardinals Gameday

It’s Chris Carpenter for the Redbirds and Mat Latos for the Redlegs. Game time 5:15PM PDT.

If the Cards win the Dodgers are done. If the Cards lose and the Dodgers win, the Cards’ magic number remains at one. If both the Cards and the Dodgers lose, the Dodgers are done. Not that there’s any pressure on the Dodgers or anything.

The home team sends Chris Capuano (12-11, 3.69 ERA) out to face Barry Zito (14-8, 4.19 ERA). Capuano has been pretty steady all season long for the Dodgers, while Zito has mounted somewhat of a comeback from the disappointment he’s been since coming over to the Giants. In fact, this is year 6 of a 7- year, $126M deal he signed in 2007, and it’s the first year he’s had more wins than losses in any season.

Lineup:

Ellis, M, 2B
Victorino, S, LF
Kemp, M, CF
Gonzalez, A, 1B
Ramirez, H, SS
Cruz, L, 3B
Ethier, A, RF
Ellis, A, C
Capuano, C, P

Giants – Dodgers Gameday

Annoyingly, the game is only being televised by KCAL and not on Prime Ticket, so I’m out of luck. If I were the MLB.TV people I’d have made this game the free one today, since it’s the only one with any playoff implications, but no. The free one is the Mets – Marlins game for unfathomable reasons.

Oct 01

Walkoff win!

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It’s not every day you see a manager pull a double switch which involves pulling the guy who hit a two-run home run earlier in the game and putting a relief pitcher in his spot. That’s what Don Mattingly did in this game, however, taking Andre Ethier out of the number-two spot and replacing him with closer Brandon League while putting little-used utility-man Elian Herrera in the number-nine spot. It paid off in spades when Herrera came up with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth inning and lined a single off the glove of the drawn-in Marco Scutaro at second base, scoring Hanley Ramirez to give the Dodgers a 3 – 2 win and keeping their slim playoff hopes alive.

This was a tight game all evening, with the Dodgers falling behind 1 – 0 on a double by Buster Posey in the very first inning, scoring Scutaro, who’d walked. Ethier got the run back and one more with a booming home run to center field after a Mark Ellis single. The Dodgers had a chance to score an insurance run in the sixth inning, but Adrian Gonzalez’s career-high 47th double of the year was wasted when he was out at the plate on an excellent throw by Dodger cast-off Xavier Nady after a single by Shane Victorino. Then in the eighth inning the Giants tied the game on a double by Angel Pagan and a single by Scutaro, who took second on Victorino’s ill-advised throw to the plate. Fortunately for the Dodgers, pitcher Kenley Jansen got the next two Giants out with no further damage. League got the Giants out in the ninth, allowing a single by Aubrey Huff but no further damage. That set the stage for Herrera’s heroics in the bottom of the inning.

St. Louis defeated Cincinnati 4 – 2 earlier in the evening, reducing its magic number to one. The Dodgers’ only hope is to win the final two games against the Giants while the Reds defeat the Cardinals in the final two games of the season. That would leave the Dodgers and Cardinals with identical 87 – 75 records and force a one-game playoff between the two teams to determine which goes on to another one game playoff against the Atlanta Braves, who won the National League’s Wild Card #1.

Oct 01

Game Thread 10/1/12

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It’s Cain v. Abel Harang at 7:10PM PDT at Dodger Stadium.

Matt Cain has a perfect game mixed into his 16 – 5 record this year. He’s taken over the #1 starter role from Tim Lincecum, at least this season. Aaron Harang had a late slump but recovered to win his last outing against the Padres on Wednesday. He’s 10 – 10 on the year.

It’s Giants – Dodgers with a playoff berth on the line. If you’re a Dodgers fan with a pulse, you’re either at the game or glued to the couch watching it on TV.

Lineup:

Ellis, M, 2B
Ethier, A, RF
Kemp, M, CF
Gonzalez, A, 1B
Ramirez, H, SS .256
Victorino, S, LF
Cruz, L, 3B
Ellis, A, C
Harang, A, P

Gameday

Update: Cards – Reds Gameday It’s 3 – 1 Cards going to the bottom of the 4th.

Oct 01

American League playoffs

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In a manifestation of how interconnected baseball can be, by winning the nightcap of their doubleheader yesterday the Rangers assured not only themselves but also the Yankees and Orioles spots in the post-season playoffs. It’s still to be determined who plays whom and where and when.

ESPN’s “If the season ended today” feature shows it would be the As and Yankees in the AL Wild Card #2 game; the winner moves on to play the Rangers. The Tigers and Orioles would play in the other series. The opponents could change depending on the results of the next three days.

Tampa Bay has a faint hope, but if it loses once or the As win once, the Florida team is done. It could still have an impact, though, as it starts a three-game home series with the Os today. Today’s game between the two is free on MLB.tv at 4:10PM PDT.

The Yankees, meanwhile, start a three-game series with the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. I’m sure the schedulers thought “Ooh, man, this will be a meaningful series which will determine the winner of the AL East.” It still may, but the Red Sox won’t be in the mix. Little did the schedulers know how completely the Bosox would collapse this year. They lost their 90th game of the year yesterday, which ensures their worst record since 1966.

Update: I thought I had the situation covered, but David Schoenfield goes into further possibilities at ESPN’s Sweet Spot blog.

Sep 30

Bring on the Giants!

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The Dodgers won their fifth in a row Sunday afternoon, defeating the Rockies 7 – 1. Josh Beckett got his second win as a Dodger, scattering six hits over six innings and giving up just one run, a home run by Andrew Brown. Matt Kemp, AJ Ellis, and Luis Cruz each hit two-run home runs for the Dodgers.

Fun fact: “Five of Ellis’ 12 home runs and 18 of his 50 RBIs have come against the Rockies.”

The Cardinals, by winning today, keep their two-game advantage for Wild Card #2. They see Cincinnati come in to St. Louis to play three games, and the Reds are trying to secure home-field advantage, so they’re probably not going to roll over. If they manage to beat the Cards two out of three and the Dodgers sweep the Giants there’d be a single-game playoff to break a tie for the Wild Card spot. If the Reds sweep and the Dodgers sweep, the Dodgers, almost unbelievably after the last month of inept play, would get to play the winner of Wild Card #1 in a single game for the right to go on to the NLDS. The winner of that wild card appears in all likelihood to be the Braves, who remain three games in back of the Nationals for the NL East title with three games to go. Their opponent for those last three games will be the collapsing Pirates, so a sweep isn’t out of the question. The Nationals play three against the Phillies. With a magic number of one, all they have to do is beat the Philadelphians once.

It should be an exciting next three days. And I haven’t even written anything about the American League playoff situation, which is still as muddled as it can be!

Sep 30

Once more unto the breach

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Beckett v. de la Rosa (Jorge, not Rubby!) today, with the Dodgers starting their game two hours after the Cardinals and Nats go at it again. The Cards – Nationals game is the free MLB game, in case anyone cares more for baseball than football, and it starts at 11:15AM PDT. Ross Detwiler starts for the Nationals and Lance Lynn starts for the Redbirds. The Dodgers game is on Prime Ticket and begins at 1:10PM PDT.

Beckett’s been pretty good for the Dodgers since he arrived from Boston, but he’s been unlucky. He’s put up a 3.16 ERA but has only one win to show for it, with three losses. The Dodgers’ offense has scored only 13 runs in his six games with them.

Lineup:

Ellis, M, 2B
Victorino, S, LF
Kemp, M, CF
Gonzalez, A, 1B
Ramirez, H, SS
Cruz, L, 3B
Ethier, A, RF
Ellis, A, C
Beckett, J, P

Gameday

Breaking news: the Cardinals have a 9 – 4 lead over the Nationals in the 5th inning.

Sep 29

Still a breath of life

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The Dodgers’ 3 – 0 victory this evening coupled with St. Louis’s 6 – 4 loss to Washington at home in extra innings has pushed the Dodgers one step closer to Wild Card #2. Matt Kemp hit two home runs and the bullpen was stellar following Blanton’s strong six innings. They’re still 2 games behind the Cardinals, but the Cards’ magic number remains 3. That means at least the first game with the Giants on Monday will be meaningful.

That ought to be interesting. Which team will come out on top in this ancient rivalry this time? The Giants, as they did in 1951 and 1982 (curses be upon you, Bobby Thomson and Joe Morgan!), or the Dodgers, as happened in 1959, 1993 and 2004?

Sep 29

Five to go

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It’s Blanton v. Chatwood today at 5:00PM PDT in Dodger Stadium. Blanton’s had little success since coming over to the Dodgers from the Phillies, posting a 1-4 record with a 5.57 ERA in nine starts. In his last start he showed some improvement, giving up one run in 5 2/3 innings against the Reds and getting a no-decision for his trouble. Chatwood is 5-5 with a 5.49 ERA this season, but he too had a pretty good game his last time out, giving up two runs on three hits over 5 2/3 innings to the D-Backs and getting the win.

The Cardinals’ magic number is three. The Dodgers have to win and hope the Nationals can do their part by beating St. Louis this evening. The Nats send out Jordan Zimmermann against the Cards’ Kyle Lohse.

Lineup:

Punto 2B .345
Ethier RF .285
Kemp CF .303
Gonzalez 1B .276
Ramirez SS .251
Victorino LF .252
Cruz 3B .306
Ellis C .268
Blanton P

Gameday