87 thoughts on “Ho ho ho!

  1. For those of you who have been wondering what the Dodgers are going to do this off-season, here is what is going to happen:
    1. Dodgers will trade Muncy, Alvarez, and Wong or Cartaya for Realmuto.
    2. Miami will sign Grandal to a 4 year $62M contract.
    3. Dodgers will sign Harper to a 4 year $160M contract.
    4. Dodgers will trade Maeda, Verdugo, and May for Syndergaard.

    LF Pederson
    3B Turner
    SS Seager
    RF Harper
    C Realmuto
    1B Bellinger
    CF Taylor
    2B Hernandez until Lux takes over in July

    #1 could be Muncy and Ruiz instead. I will leave some intrigue.

    • Thanks for this (keeps the juices flowing)! #2 is so implausible that it makes the others seem less so. That said, my own feeling is that the FO appreciates Muncy more than you do, particularly at his price. He is only two years older than Bryce and under control to 2023. On the surface, Realmuto’s rightside bat is needed in the lineup, yet he hit OPS+ 80 against lefties and Max hit 145!

      • I agree Muncy’s 2018 compared favorably to Harper with the caveat that he didn’t evolve consistently into the year he had in 2018 and therefore I worry that he might be a one-year-wonder. I only included him because Miami said they wanted Bellinger so I offered the next best thing.

        • Sure, understand where you are coming from on this. On Muncy, FO detected potential and his turnaround from change in approach began in the minors in 2017 and his 2018 campaign was very consistent with a low of OPS + 132 in August, (which is what Bryce hit for the year BTW, though I was really comparing him with Realmuto).

    • Thanks for this (keeps the juices flowing)! #2 is so implausible that it makes the others seem less so. That said, my own feeling is that the FO appreciates Muncy more than you do, particularly at his price. He is only two years older than Bryce and under control to 2023. On the surface, Realmuto’s rightside bat is needed in the lineup, yet he hit OPS+ 80 against lefties and Max hit 145!

  2. Last year (ha!) David Pinto noted the contract the Angels were willing to give (and he was willing to take) Jonathan Lucroy: $3.35M for 2019. He finds that astonishing:

    Lucroy is a great example of how the value of catchers can plummet. In his prime, seasonal age 26 to 28, he collected over 13 WAR. In the four years since, he posted a little over seven WAR, most of that in 2016. The Angels are now paying him as a half-WAR player. With this contract, his career earning will be about $26 million. According to FanGraphs, he generated about $170 million worth of value in his career.

    Pinto goes on to suggest a way to solve this underpayment problem (from the players’ perspective).

    • There is certainly an overall case. As you say, particularly tough for catchers, who usually are called up a bit older and who drop off more quickly as they age. Lucroy himself did sign an five-year extension for $11 million after his second year, so he sold off his chances for more money for the guarantee. He probably would have gotten more under arbitration and probably lost a big payoff if he had been a FA a year earlier.

    • There is certainly an overall case. As you say, particularly tough for catchers, who usually are called up a bit older and who drop off more quickly as they age. Lucroy himself did sign an five-year extension for $11 million after his second year, so he sold off his chances for more money for the guarantee. He probably would have gotten more under arbitration and probably lost a big payoff if he had been a FA a year earlier.

  3. Rose Bowl looking a lot like the Rose Parade. Huskies can’t get on track, so to speak.

    • The market is bullish for catchers, but Yasmani turning down 4-60 from the Mets is surprising for me. Tends to strengthen Fish resolve on getting more for Realmuto and the possibility that the Dodgers go for a less than elite option at that position.

      • Wow. Hadn’t heard that about Yasmani. That’s delusions of Grandal, right there.

        • Perhaps. My point was that if this is the market floor for elite catchers, can’t see Fish budging much from asking for Belli. Of course, these sorts of things are impossible to verify.

          • That’s the thing. I don’t think it’s the market floor. There wasn’t a hint of it in the NY media, even before the Mets signed Wilson Ramos for $19M for two years, and given that contract, and the Mets penury in general, I doubt 4-60 is correct.

          • Yet, now seeing some things from NYC press and that both sides essentially confirmed talks with Mets-Grandal of this nature. Agree that Grande might find it hard to top. Reportedly he wanted 4-65.

    • Hot stove just warming up after the recent salary dump. Which way(s) does FO go, starter, catcher, second base, outfielder?

      • In order of priority, catcher, 2nd, starter, outfielder ( but I guess it depends on the outfielder!)

        • Agree, catcher would be a first priority for me as well, if only another warm body. I think that Quique has shown he can handle 2nd, certainly better potenial contribution than we have received the past couple of years from that position, even when we thought we were upgrading with Forsythe and then Dozier. Rather spend resources on a top flight starter. That would probably cost us at least an outfielder (Verdugo?) as trade bait, though. Ugh, glad I am not FO. Some hard decisions to be made, particularly if they want to remain under the luxury tax.

          • Kike’ is the emergency catcher. For the fun in saying it, why not convert him into the backup catcher in spring training?

        • FA markets are thin as regards attractive upgrades, I mean beyond Harper. A.J Pollock is about the only guy in the outfield who fits the bill, but risky with recent injuries. Not like we have a lot of outfielders on the farm knocking at the door, however, so could do a longer term, incentive-laden contract with an attractive AAV. Marwin Gonzalez much less of an upgrade. A flexible switch hitter, but splits not very pronounced as a platoon piece. At second, Lowrie would be an upgrade, but not cheap and given age and Lux knocking at the door probably don’t want to do a long contract to reduce AAV. At catcher, Grandal is the only guy out there, other than some older vets that could be backups. Keuchel is the only top level FA pitcher still out there, but at this point he be more of a middle of the rotation guy and not much of an upgrade.

          So, seems like the trade market may be receiving a lot of attention from the FO and where Dodgers have a number of young arms (May, Santana, Mitchell) and receivers to use as bait.

    • I’ve always favored Smith over Ruiz doe to his speed and defense. J.P. mentioned that Smith could fill in at second and third but didn’t say anything about Ruiz playing other positions.

      I wonder if Ruiz could one day replace Turner at third should Smith hit enough to keep the catcher spot? Smith would have to hit a lot to be the regular 3rd baseman.

      Barring a trade or free agent catcher signing, I think Smith will be sharing the catcher spot by July.

      • The uncertainty over Barnes’ hitting would seem to pretty much force their hand in doing something in the offseason, unless they were able to bring in some more pretty big bats in other slots and just pick up a backup vet.

        • Sounds like their was a Strpling for Cervelli trade talk but it fell apart. Maybe due to review of medical records.

  4. Link: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and yours. Mele Kalikimaka me ka hauʻoli makahiki hou. Looking forward to another year of your doing such a great job of running this silte, and, also, of the Dodgers finally winning it all.

    • 60th anniversary of spending Christmas on the beach at Hanalei, Kauai with my seven brothers and sisters aboard our family’s Tahiti ketch. I got a small stuff Lassie dog as a gift.

      • Sounds nice, we had a nice time with family. It’s going to be 102 degrees here tomorrow, so we are just trying to stay cool