Open Thread #10

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Correction: I thought the Dodger Insider post I linked to was written by Jon Weisman. I’m still not used to thinking of that site as a multi-author blog. It was actually written by Cary Osborne. I’m sorry for the misattribution!

By Mr. Weisman’s Cary Osborne’s calculations, the moves the Dodgers made during the off-season have made them the most improved team in the West in terms of Defensive Runs Saved.

Huh? What’s that number, you ask? Defensive Runs Saved is an attempt to determine the value of a player against other players of the same position. As Joe Posnanski put it at his blog: “the number determines (using film study and computer comparisons) how many more or fewer successful plays a defensive player will make than league average.”

Here’s the full-on explanation from its creators at The Fielding Bible, if you’re interested. It’s lengthy.

Anyway, Jon Cary says

Gone from the Dodgers are Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon, who combined for -37 DRS. In are Howie Kendrick, and Jimmy Rollins and what appears to be either Joc Pederson or Andre Ethier. Since there isn’t enough Major League statistical data on Pederson, we’re going to slot Ethier into the replacement for Kemp. Rollins, Kendrick and Ethier combined for six DRS. That’s a swing of +43 DRS.

He’s got the other NL West teams’ DRS data, and he comes up with the startling fact that the Dodgers are the only team in the division whose changes over the winter give it a net positive number.

Huh.

68 thoughts on “Open Thread #10”

  2. Jeff Snider plays “What – If” with the Dodgers and Luke Hochevar. What if he had not dumped Scott Boras and agreed to a deal with the Dodgers (as really happened in 2005) and then reneged on his switch from Boras to a different agent? He didn’t sign with anyone that year. He was drafted again in 2006 by the Royals. The Dodgers picked seventh that year, and they got a high school pitcher named Kershaw.

    But what if Hochevar had signed with the Dodgers in 2005? Which teams and which players might have been affected? Go read. It’s a fun game.

    • Having a bit of money allows us to do these sorts of things and take risks. Kuo was as injury prone as anyone with two TJ under his belt (well, actually his elbow) and gave us three years of ERA+ of 196, 135 and 324 before he got eh Knoblauch disease.

  5. Friedman doesn’t seem deterred by penalties and signing restrictions if the team lands Moncada–and maybe additional Cubans. Regards the consequences as just a cost of doing business if signings make sense.

    From linked story: “The Dodgers would face the same penalties if they signed amateurs Yadier
    Alvarez, Andy Ibanez and/or others during this international signing period.”

    OK, go for it. Sign Moncada and the rest of ’em too.

    Kinda like in basketball….if you’re going to get called for a foul, get your money’s worth. Go ahead and mug the other guy, don’t just get called for a pitty-pat hand check or something minor.

    http://www.truebluela.com/2015/2/19/8073799/dodgers-cuban-free-agents-yoan-moncada

  6. Gurnick perspective piece from a couple days back. From it…

    “Mattingly’s job has already been made easier by the clubhouse subtractions of Kemp, Ramirez and Brian Wilson. Although Kemp was a star again in the second half, his relationship with Mattingly was strained. Ramirez was a daily uncertainty physically, especially after the club wouldn’t extend his contract. And Wilson’s eccentricity, tolerated when he was unhittable, became a distraction when he couldn’t get outs.”

    Nothing earth-shattering, but more confirmation of clubhouse issues last year.

    Other good stuff in piece.

    http://m.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article/109370358/los-angeles-dodgers-head-into-spring-training-hoping-to-prove-overhaul-will-work

    • Imagine having to work with people you don’t get along with! Me thinks that Donnie will actually have a more difficult time. The previous line up almost wrote itself. There will be a lot of second guessing and disgruntlement on where guys are batting in the line up from them, and for us, if we don’t get quickly out of the blocks.

      • Don’s game skills do not impress me, but I appreciate the complexity of managing egos – it was hard enough with a slow-pitch team that wasn’t earning millions.

  9. Some comments elsewhere that…

    A) Kenley should have told the team earlier instead of waiting until start of the season.

    B) The medical staff is not doing its job, should have known about this and fixed it before now.

    I wish to add…

    C) Once again, there is no shortage of idiot commenters in some places.

    • Certainly agree with C) but not necessarily A) and B). I got the impression from the post about it that it was a very recent development, and note also that the process of diagnosis as listed would likely have eaten up several weeks. No rocks to be thrown here…

  10. What level of concern does everyone have with Kenley being out for 8-12 weeks? Out of a scale of 10 (max concern), I would say I’m at about 2.5 or 3.

    • Foot surgery is a lot less scary than anything to do with his arm. However, I remember that it was Dizzy Dean’s broken toe and him changing his delivery to accommodate it that shortened his career, so even feet can cause trouble.

    • I think yours is a reasonable assessment. Though it’s great to have an elite closer, there’s usually somebody who can fill in for the short term – so long as it’s not League.

    • 7.5. Good innings from the pen are at a premium at the beginning of the season before the starters are able to round into form.

  13. You may remember that when Derek Jeter retired he talked about creating a website for players to communicate directly with fans without the filter of the sportswriters.

    He’s done so. I didn’t even know its name, but I saw a link to an essay written there by Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates in which he talks about the problem baseball has in leaving low-income kids out of the game. It’s pretty good. He talks about the choices poor kids have to make, say between Playstations and baseball equipment.

    I always chose the new bat or glove. But all the scraping and saving in the world wasn’t going to be enough for my family to send me an hour north to Lakeland every weekend to play against the best competition. That’s the challenge for families today. It’s not about the $100 bat. It’s about the $100-a-night motel room and the $30 gas money and the $300 tournament fee. There’s a huge financing gap to get a child to that next level where they might be seen.

  15. This ranks Dodgers #2 in baseball. Starts Dodger eval with this:

    “The nerd numbers (and by that I mean the PECOTA projections) really, really, really love this Dodgers team. The system picks them to win 97 games, by far the most in baseball. I don’t think it’s going to be quite that easy, particularly given how much the Padres have improved the outlook of the NL West. But while I don’t know if the win total itself will improve on last year’s 94 mark, I do think the Dodgers project to be a better ballclub than they were last year.”

    http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/108999212/top-10-mlb-teams-for-2015

    • I understand the longer term nature of the moves and the risks to the club otherwise, but out of curiosity wonder what the projections would have been if they had resigned Hanley and not traded Kemp among their moves?

      • How many games would such an injury-prone duo be likely to play? I like them both, but that’s an issue, especially with Hanley.

        • Hanley played in about 60% of our games the past two years and gave us over WAR 10. You think we would get anything near 5 WAR next year at SS from anyone playing there full time? Kemp gave us four years averaging 160 games per season. He ran into a wall and he stepped awkwardly on home plate so he is injury-prone? He played in 150 games last year and had a second half OPS+ of 177 on par with his 2011 season when he produced WAR 8.6. He hits like that and even if he plays half the games he gives us WAR 4.3. You think we get that next year from any of our outfielders except Puig?

          • I think Joc has the potential to do that, but whether he’ll manage it in his rookie season is debatable. I like Kemp a lot, but his judgment as an OF is open to question, and his physical did show arthritic hips. Rollins should be a big defensive upgrade on Hanley, and he even has a little pop (though far from Hanley levels).

          • Sure. I really didn’t mean to rehash the moves and their rationales, as I tried to indicate in posing the question. In my response to you, I was trying to show that even if projected as “injury-prone” the production of these two will be difficult to replace.

          • You make a good case. Kendrick and Grandal are likely to pick up some of that slack, I think. The injuries really cut into A.J.’s production, and catchers age so much quicker. It’s unfortunate they didn’t give him the job when he was in his prime.

          • Yes, after Martin left they went through a bunch of retreads before finally acknowledging A.J. was better than any of them.

          • I deeply regret losing Kemp. Did the Padres really want him or only the money? I have to wonder if they wouldn’t have been just as happy to take Ethier and more money. Shorter contract, lower salary, easier to spin-off. They’re certainly not short of outfielders…

          • Kemp was just the first in a series of moves to upgrade their outfield and starting rotation, so I don’t think that they were looking for money and warm bodies.

  17. While the Dodgers improved themselves defensively, this is not a comparison by position as presented by Osborne, but uses overall numbers by these players, so it would include Kemp in lf, cf and rf, where he ended up just a bit below average.

  19. I find this plausible, but quantifying defense is necessarily imprecise. The traditional numbers – errors, fielding percentage – are extremely oversimplified.