Daily Archives: September 5, 2014

Sep 05

How many innings can one arm throw?

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According to Dodgers.com Beckett is thinking about retirement.

Beckett needs surgery to repair a torn labrum and a lesion in his left hip, whether he pitches again or not.

[snip]

He’s a high-mileage 34-year-old, having thrown 2,051 innings in 13 big league seasons.

I don’t doubt Beckett might decline a four-month rehab, as the article suggests is needed. He hurts, he’s made more than $116M in his career and has a couple of small kids, so why not retire? Other than the no-hitter this year I suspect he hasn’t had much fun this season. He even says “It takes four hours of [therapy] work to do two hours on the field.”

I think baseball may have seen the last of Josh Beckett as a player. But that bit about his innings pitched raised a question for me — is 2,051 IP high-mileage? Over 13 years he’s averaged 209 IP over a 162-game period. He was a full-time starter when he was 22 years old. Among Dodger starters:

  • Dan Haren is 33 and has thrown 2,202 innings in 12 MLB seasons for a 162-game average of 215 IP.
  • Kevin Correia is 34 but has thrown only 1,397 MLB innings for a 162-game average of 168 IP in 12 seasons.
  • Roberto Hernandez is 34 with 1,248 MLB innings for a 162-game average of 190 IP over 9 seasons.
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu is 27, has 7 years of Korean League experience and 1,269 innings there in addition to the 336 he’s got in the big leagues, averaging roughly 178 IP (the Korean Leagues throw off the 162-game calculation).
  • Chad Billingsley is 30 and has 1,175 MLB innings for a 162-game average of 195 IP over 7 seasons (and 12 innings).
  • Kershaw, believe it or not, is 27 but has 1,349 MLB innings himself and has averaged 223 IP over a 162-game period in 7 seasons.

Of the three guys who are the same age as Beckett, Haren’s the closest in hard use. He’s always been a starter. Correia pitched his first five years in relief and as a spot starter. Hernandez was a full-time starter in his second year in the bigs.

If Beckett is high-mileage, then Haren, averaging 215 IP, and Kershaw, averaging 223 IP, are the two guys who could also be classified as such. We can only hope Kershaw doesn’t injure himself throwing that many innings every year.

Sep 05

Game 141, 2014

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Diamondbacks at Dodgers, 7:10PM PT, TV: SPNLA, MLBN

18 of the Dodgers’ final 22 games are against division opponents. 19 of the Giants’ final 22 games are against division opponents. The NL West championship is going to be decided this month, although perhaps not in games the two teams play against one another. Their last meeting is a three-game series ending on the 24th of September in Los Angeles. After that the Dodgers close out the season with three games at home against the Rockies, while the Giants go home to play the Padres for four games.

It starts tonight as Dan Haren (11-10, 4.27 ERA) tries to keep up his current two-game streak of quality starts. He’s given up just one earned run in his last 13 innings. The D-Backs will counter with a left-hander named Vidal Nuno, who’s pitched in horrid luck all year. He’s 2-9 with a 4.46 ERA, but some of that was in 78 innings with the Yankees. He’s 0-4 with a 3.23 ERA in 61.1 innings since coming over to the Diamondbacks. They’re 1-9 in his starts for them.

Lineup:

Van Slyke could be forgiven if he’s distracted or sleepy. His wife Audrey gave birth to their second son, Eli, early Thursday morning.