Darby and vulnerability

It’s a nice Irish name spent on a scary tropical storm.

You feel like a sitting duck out here, completely at the mercy of the water temps and the air currents above. You can’t drive far enough to get out of the way, often the airports will be shut down so you couldn’t fly elsewhere anyway, and there aren’t enough ocean liners in the world to hold a million-plus people if you wanted to evacuate them all.

This time we got lucky. Darby was headed directly for the state and was forecast to hit the Big Island of Hawai’i, the one farthest south, and then turn north and travel directly up the island chain. It did, but it’s dropped to the lowest level of tropical storm, packing barely 40 mph sustained winds. In an odd coincidence, Darby made landfall on the Big Island near Pahala, just a few miles away from where Hurricane Iselle landed in 2014.

Here’s what the track is forecast to be as of 8:00PM this evening:

DarbySunday

That’s a pretty terrifying track, but it’s not so bad as long as it’s got those low wind speeds, right?

Now look at this. This is what we were expecting as of Wednesday the 20th, when we had no idea whether it was going to strengthen into a hurricane:

DarbyWednesday

It gets a little worrisome.