Enthusiasm gap?

For months we’ve been hearing that Obama has disappointed his base and that it may not turn out in the numbers he needs to be re-elected. We’ve been told at the same time that the Republicans are all highly-motivated to defeat him in November.

If that were ever true, it doesn’t appear to be now. Take a look at the turnout numbers for the Republican primaries and caucuses so far.

Note that in five of eight states, turnout has actually dropped, and it barely moved up in one of the other three (Iowa).

Conventional wisdom about that Republican enthusiasm may once again be wrong. It’s a long time till November, but this may be one thing the Democrats needn’t worry about while ensuring its people come out to vote.

.

2008

2012

.

Iowa

119,118

122,255

.

New Hampshire

234,851

248,448

.

South Carolina

445,677

603,856

.

Florida

1,949,498

1,672,352

.

Nevada

44,324

32,894

.

Colorado

70,229

65,479

.

Missouri

588,720

251,868

.

Minnesota

62,828

47,801